I recently delivered a short presentation for the Theatre Network Australia (TNA) as part of a seminar entitled ‘Planning for a future we can’t imagine.’ I am including here a quick overview of the main points:

Theory of Change as an impact-driven planning tool
Action research as a useful model for iterative planning
Values-driven planning

TNA also has a useful bunch of links to other planning tools and resources.

Theory of Change

The key to a good Theory of Change is to work backwards from the big picture goal to the activity, rather than the other way around. A Theory of Change has the following elements:

Big picture goals - these are your legacy goals, the difference you want your project or organisation to make to the long arc of history
Project impacts - these are the medium to long-term impacts that your project or organisation needs to achieve to contribute to the big picture goals
Outcomes - these are the intermediate or short-term outcomes that your project or organisation needs to achieve to get to the project impacts
Activities - this is what your project or organisation will do to lead to the outcomes.

You decide your activity based on simple equation:

What will lead to the change we want to see?

+

What we can do that no one else can?

For example, I might want to contribute to world peace. To do that, perhaps I should become an international human rights lawyer. But when I tried to do a law degree, I hated it. So what can I do that no one else can? I can write this blog post, for starters - and work in the arts for social change.

Below is a rough example of what a Theory of Change might look like for an art gallery which wants to support cultural equity and justice.

The useful thing about a Theory of Change are the arrows. The example may look like an electrical circuit diagram but it is essential that you use a Theory of Change to unpack your cause and effect assumptions. Adding the arrows allows you to really critically evaluate:

Will X really lead to Y, or am I basing that on false assumptions, poor research or unconscious bias?

What else do I need to do to make sure X leads to Y?

Who do I need to ask to make sure my assumptions are valid?

For more details about Theory of Change, go to our dedicated resource. Also thanks to Ian David Moss for schooling me in Theory of Change in the first place.

Action Research

Now let’s turn to action research. This is the term given to a cycle of observe, reflect, plan and act. You may have heard this called all sorts of things:

In the innovation field this is called the fast fail model
In design it might be called beta testing or design-led thinking
In business it is called agile project management

In essence, it just means:

Do something (‘Act’)
See how it goes (‘Observe’)
Ask yourself and others what worked, and what needs to be done differently (‘Reflect’)
Get ready (‘Plan’)
Do something a bit different this time (‘Act’)
etc

Values-Based Planning

‘Values-based’ or ‘values-driven’ planning is about checking in with your values, rather than your KPIs or immediate metrics, to make sure you are on track. It is a useful grounding exercise, to being you back to what you really believe in and the change you want to see in the world as a result of your existence.

Values-based planning is super useful for individuals and organisations, and is something I do in general, with my life.

For an organisation, checking in with values makes sure you are not working your tail off to achieve what Vu Le calls the organisation’s ‘shadow mission.’ For example, you may have set up your organisation wanting kids to experience live music. In a Theory of Change, this is actually an outcome - not a goal.

Big picture goal: Kids have access to a source of replenishable joy throughout their lives.

Impact: Kids aged Y in X neighbourhood know where to find music and how to enjoy it.

Outcomes: Kids have access to live music experiences; kids enjoy the experiences; the experiences are accessible; the venue and logistics all work well.

Activity: Set up live experiences of music for kids [from X neighbourhood and Y age range); work with schools and families to make sure kids can get there (e.g. look at transport, timing, costs)

If you understand this, then you can stay focused on the big picture goal.

But what often happens is, your organisation becomes focused on building its brand, or fundraising, or beating competitors.

Over time, instead of being about helping kids access joy, most of your activities seem to become focused on organisational survival, and fighting with other organisations which have the same mission, over resources.

Values-driven planning is about checking in and challenging yourself and your organisation.

Identify

What are your values? Be honest and specific! For example, I might say my values are cultural equity and justice, but are they really? Or as a writer and a woman, are my values actually ‘cultural equity and justice for women of colour working in literature?’
For example, you might say your values are to help people experience the joy you experience when you see theatre. Which is lovely. But let’s unpack it. There are two potentially conflicting goals here: joy for people, and theatre. They might not go together for everyone, so get specific.
Also - which people? If your organisation ends up with a price point for its activities too high for the majority of society, then you have to acknowledge that your organisation is actually delivering ‘the joy of theatre experiences for the wealthiest people in my city.’ Which may not be where you started, or what you value. So that means you have to challenge what you are doing.

Ask

Who do you need to ask to make sure what we want to do matches what we say we value?
For example, if I say I am all about cultural equity and justice for people of marginalised identities, I need to bring on people of marginalised identities into ownership, planning and decision-making. Otherwise I am just feathering my own nest. If your organisation says it wants to help, say, First Nations Australians access employment opportunities, then you have to have as a goal the transfer of power and ownership to First Nations Australians. Otherwise your ‘shadow mission’ starts to take over, and instead of transferring power, you start to hoard it for your organisation’s survival.

Design

Co-design activities which will enact your values. Again this is about making sure that, if you have social change goals, you centre the people you want to support.

Act

You implement the activities - again centring the people you want to support in delivering your activities.

Measure and reflect

Check in. Are your activities actually achieving your values? Or are there unintended or unforeseen consequences that are not achieving your values - may even be undermining your values?
For example, I once worked with an organisation which wanted to support better understanding and safety for people of marginalised identities, via online videos marketed to the general public. But these videos generated so much Internet vitriol that the project was unsafe for the intended beneficiaries.

Change

Make changes to meet core values. In the example above, the organisation ‘pivoted,’ shifting the target audience to other people of marginalised identities who could create a wider, safe community for the target beneficiaries.